If you’ve been reading my column for awhile, you know I think the world of the analysis Brian Hibbs does each year on the BookScan sales of comics and graphic novels in the retail book outlets. For those who aren’t aware, most of the time the sales we all dissect relate exclusively to the direct market (or better known as the local comic book stores that get their supply from Diamond).
While Diamond sales are an important measure of industry health, they’re not the total picture. As sales of collected editions (e.g., TPBs, hardcovers, OGNs) have blossomed over the last decade, so too has the importance of retailers outside the direct market. Unfortunately for number crunchers like me, the bookstore and mass market retailers are tracked by Nielsen BookScan, and the data isn’t generally available without a hefty subscription fee. But Brian Hibbs, for eight years running, has provided an annual analysis of BookScan data related to comics, and has gotten increasingly granular with his own analysis of that data as the years progress. I STRONGLY recommend reading Brian’s analysis in its entirety, and drawing your own conclusions.
How important are the BookScan numbers to assessing industry health? Consider:
According to John Jackson Miller, “including all comics, trades, graphic novels, and magazines, Diamond had sales of approximately $419 million.” Meanwhile, according to Hibbs’ BookScan data, sales of comics in the mainstream retail were $172.4 million last year. In other words, BookScan accounted for about 30% of aggregate sales between the two markets.
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2010 Diamond Sales — $418.6 million (70.8% of total)
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2010 BookScan Comic Sales — $172.4 million (29.2% of total)
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2010 Combined Comic Sales — $591.0 million
If we compare the Diamond numbers with BookScan numbers from 2009, we get:
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2009 Diamond Sales — $429.5 million (69.4% of total)
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2009 BookScan Comic Sales — $189.0 million (30.6% of total)
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2009 Combined Comic Sales — $618.5 million
And for 2008, we get:
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2008 Diamond Sales — $436.6 million (68.7% of total)
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2008 BookScan Comic Sales — $199.0 million (31.3% of total)
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2008 Combined Comic Sales — $636.6 million
Now keep in mind that even though the combination of BookScan and Diamond numbers is a more holistic view of the industry, it’s still not perfect. BookScan doesn’t include ALL retailers outside the direct market, most notably Wal-Mart, but it does include the vast majority (including Borders, Barnes & Noble, Amazon and others). Also, the numbers Diamond reports aren’t sales to end customers, but rather what the local store owners purchase from Diamond (because the direct market is largely non-returnable). Whereas sales through BookScan are actual SELL THROUGH to end customers. Either way, while the data isn’t perfect, it’s better than looking at one without the other.
Sales are declining, but higher prices are helping stem the tide
Over the last two years, total sales (Diamond+BookScan) have fallen 7.2% (3.5% annualized). That’s hardly great, but it’s not the hemorrhaging some have feared. Unfortunately the dollar declines are hiding a more ominous UNIT decline (because the average price of each unit is going up).
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Single issues (Diamond) have fallen from 81.3 million copies to 69.2 million copies over the last two years – 14.9% decline (7.2% annualized)
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Units (BookScan) have fallen from 15.54 million to 12.13 million over the last two years – 22.0% decline (10.4% annualized)
Other Derivative Observations based on Hibbs’ BookScan Data
Now turning our attention back to Brian’s BookScan analysis, it’s so chock full of useful information, that once again I IMPLORE you to read his article in its entirety. Below are some of the things that hit me over the head as I was reading through the data. Your mileage may vary.
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The Watchmen Effect is over – In 2008 and 2009, Watchmen sold more than 730,000 copies in the book market; and drove an enormous percentage of DC’s sales as a result. At a $19.99 cover price, Watchmen generated $14.6 million in sales in those two years – dwarfing anything else in its wake. This year, while Watchmen was once again a Top 20 comic in the BookScan market, sales fell to a more rational 29K copies. As a result, DC’s total sales into the BookScan market fell 31% year over year from $37.8 million to $26.0 million.
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Manga has taken the biggest dive – The “manga mania” in the United States appears to have peaked in 2007 and has fallen on hard times since. In 2010, sales of manga were $67.1 million versus a peak $108.8 million in 2007 (38.3% decline, 11.4% annualized)
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What sells outside the direct market is vastly different than what sells in the direct market – While we’re used to thinking of Marvel and DC as a duopoly in the direct market, that’s (pleasantly) not the case in the book stores.
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Total BookScan Comic Sales – $172,435,245 (100.0% of sales)
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DC – $25,982,910 (15.1%)
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Marvel – $19,485,662 (11.3%)
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Dark Horse – $10,485,140 (6.1%)
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Image – $8,152,806 (4.7%)
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Oni – $5,882,247 (3.4%)
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IDW – $3,653,680 (2.1%)
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Bryan Lee O'Malley scored a LOT of 1-Ups last year – I’m guessing Bryan Lee O’Malley wasn’t as broken up about the modest box office of the Scott Pilgrim movie as studio executives might have been, because sales of his graphic novels chugged along in a big way. All six volumes of Scott Pilgrim finished in the Top 10 in the BookScan sales last year, and sold a combined 434K copies! At $11.99 cover price, that means Scott Pilgrim rung up more than $5.2 million in retail sales in the BookScan market last year. 1-up! And that’s to say nothing of how it did internationally, at conventions, in the direct market and Wal-mart.
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Robert Kirkman made even MORE paper last year– It should come as no surprise that Robert Kirkman was immensely successful last year, to say the least. Last year, as the TV show loomed, I chronicled how successful Kirkman’s properties were in the direct market. But that only told half the story. According to Hibbs, “All thirteen volumes of "Walking Dead" place into the BookScan Top 750, as do all six of the hardcover collections. Collectively, they shipped 279k units, for almost $6.4 million dollars in sales.”
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Is Vertigo as powerful as we think? – I expected the data to show that Vertigo was an absolute powerhouse in the BookScan market, where evergreen demand for its long form series (e.g., Fables, Preacher, Y: The Last Man) would more than offset the modest success the imprint has in single issues. Yet, this year’s data doesn’t necessarily make that case. On a positive note, 45 of DC’s 96 books in the Top 750 are Vertigo titles. On the other hand, DC had $12.5 million of sales (for Top 750 books), and Vertigo accounted for approximately $4 million of that total. I expected it to be much more. Hibbs makes an astute observation that “not a single one” of Vertigo’s standalone original graphic novels ranked among the Top 750. Not a good sign for the OGN efforts going forward, I would think.
There is so much more to glean from the BookScan data, but I fear I probably already rambled longer than most of you can tolerate, so I’ll leave subsequent discussion for the iFanboy discussion thread to follow.
Have a great week.
Jason is a mutant with the ability to squeeze 36 hours into every 24-hour day, which is why he was able to convince his wife he had time to join the iFanboy team on top of running his business, raising his three sons, and most importantly, co-hosting the 11 O'Clock Comics podcast with his buddies Vince B, Chris Neseman and David Price. If you are one of the twelve people on Earth who want to read about comics, the stock market and football in rapid fire succession, you can follow him on Twitter.
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The Marvel/DC/Everyone Else market share numbers make me smile. The O’Malley and Kirkman numbers made me spit-take. Good for them, man. That is awesome.
I’ll be curious to see how the Borders bankruptcy affects 2011 sales. Fewer places for people to wander in, browse, & buy.
What would be really interesting is seeing some kind of “buyer demographics” (but we don’t have those). That there are sales of Vertigo continuing series that don’t translate to the OGNs suggests that the sales have something to do with pre-existing “buzz” getting people to try out the trades.
Wood points out that Manga sales peaked several years ago. I think a lot of the consumers aged out of the market and did not transition from the kid & teen manga volumes to some of the more mature titles (20th Century Boys & Monster come to mind). I think a problem here is a lack of a really popular stepping stone between Naruto & 20th Century Boys for older teens.
Good for Kirkman. Last time I walked into Borders (which, sadly, might be the last time I walk into Borders) I saw a whole endcap full of Walking Dead hardcovers and trades.
YAY! More depressing news about comics!
Damn, those Vertigo stats really are surprising. All around.
Top notch as always, Jason!
Wood! How I love your articles! It’s amazing to see how much money a creator like Kirkman and O’Malley can make, even though they’re only seeing a percentage of that total. Good on them man.
Hopefully the data they receieved about raising prices helped, but declining sales means, as it does with almost all media lately, the comic industry is going to start thinking about new Business Models. Sadly it seems the new Business Model is to make movies. :/ Which is great and sad at the same time if the actual comic industry becomes even smaller than what it already is.
I also hope they don’t do what other industries are doing and that is finding ways to protect their old Business Model.
what’s interesting to me is the amount of money that Borders owes Diamond…its like 4 million? If they get stiffed on the bill which is probable(Borders owes Penguin 40+ million) could a company that operates in a margin thin market like comics survive? I wonder what that trickle down effect will be?
Very surprised at how little Vertigo sells.
I am happy to see that Vertigo ongoings are doing decently. Their OGNs haven’t really affected my life at all thus far and they’ll keep putting them out for awhile if only for the opportunity of scoring that one hit.
Man, when I heard about this article, I thought maybe it would show that comics are doing okay outside of the direct market, but no. I didn’t want to know tat things are worse than previously thought.
Fascinating. I wish I had the time to really dig around in this stuff. Thank you for summarizing it so coherently, Jason.
great, wonderful piece. thanks for all the crunching!
From what I understand, the solo graphic novel effort at Vertigo is pretty much already dead. Sucks, but no one bought them. What can you do.
so i read the other article that had the more in depth information. Really surprised at what is bringing in huge numbers. The first time i heard of many of those titles in the top slots. It seems kinda obvious that the Direct Market superhero, mature theme stuff that we mostly all enjoy is not what is making the real money in comics.
Its also funny that people rag on DC’s trade/collections program but they are apparently kicking butt with it at #2 while Marvel is at #6. The analysis of Marvel is exactly how i feel about them…flooded market with too much of the same thing that just leaves the consumer confused (and not purchasing anything).
You know how Vertigo prices all of the first volumes of trades at $9.99? I would have bought every OGN they put out at that price, possibly slightly higher. As I recall, they were more in the >$20 range. It’s just too much to bet on in these days of pre-ordering everything sight-unseen. Granted, many were hardcover, but had they done them in trades at a lower price, I bet more people would have bought them, as many looked promising from the previews.
@HailScott –i agree with you on the 9.99 pricepoint, and i’ve not bought the 2nd volume cause of the in increased price if i was on the fence with it…but you really don’t have to deal with previews for GN’s and trades…you can wait and check out reviews, amazon etc. Thats what i do.
@HailScott @wallythegreenmonster They lose money on those $9.99 books.
@conor —do you know that to be a fact? If so then i wonder what motivates them to make certain books loss leaders and certain ones not. When you see a 9.99 book does that basically tells you its underperforming and they’re hoping the value will be able to give it some real numbers to keep it going?
@wallythegreenmonster I do know that to be a fact.
The only reason Vertigo trades make money even at 14.99 or 17.99 price points is that the floppies subsidise the cost of production. The trades are using already paid for content. The OGNs dont have that so they have to have higher price points. This has long been the difficulty in moving to the OGN format. A cheap paperback of original material isnt profitable enough for Marvel or DC to produce unless it sells a huge number of copies.
this makes me think that the problem isnt content driven, the bookscan charts show very different product from wider publishers. its not distribution, since pretty much everyone with access to a book store or amazon has access to comics there. And that means digital will help, but will no way solve the problem any more than it will for any other medium. Comics have done better than many other disposable income items.
before we worry about saving comics we may need to save the economy. people with less or no money buy less or no comics.
Vertigo has also (to the best of my knowledge) ended their $9.99 for the first trade effort. iZombie is $15 for volume one and I believe my LCS owner told me that new printings of Unwritten Vol 1 were $12.99 instead of $9.99. $9.99 is over, seemingly. Sad, but getting that massive first Northlanders trade for $10 really was TOO good.
I hope the digital initiative will keep the comic business going at a healthy pace.
If not, I hope this behavior is cyclical, like glaciations.
@NawidA -Image is still doing it. I’m prob gonna check out Morning Glories at 9.99
@NawidA –just looked on Amazon…yeah iZombie cover price is 15 but its going for 8.73 so its still possible to get a deal on it.
@HailScott You’re correct, the Vertigo Crime HCs are priced at $19.99, they move to $12.99 if/when they get put out in softcover. Full list here:
http://www.dccomics.com/dccomics/search/?q=%22vertigo+crime%22&s=na&f=10933
Thanks again for great topline analysis, Jason!
The really disappointing thing here is that bookscan numbers declined along with the DM, so clearly, less comic readers as whole. I wonder how much direct sales by publishers at cons might account for this, considering cons are becoming increasingly important (and crowded). I suspect not much, but perhaps I’m wrong.
@NaveenM I think the economy is more of a factor than conventions.